Economists Who Blew It Agree: Prosperity Just Around Corner
Now that we're mired in the worst economic crisis since the Depression, forecasters who didn't see it coming are consoling themselves by saying, "no one saw it coming." This is hogwash. Many people saw it coming: Gary Shilling, Nouriel Roubini, Jeremy Grantham, Dean Baker, Peter Schiff, Robert Shiller, et al. They just don't happen to work for major investment banks.
It is true that the folks who work for major investment banks didn't see it coming. Historians will eventually determine whether this is because the major investment banks uniformly employ boneheads, or, more likely, because, when you work for an investment bank, it is easier to conclude that now is always a good time to buy stocks.
In any event... the New York Times reports that economists who work for major investment banks now think that prosperity is just around the corner. Hard to tell whether this is good news or bad news. For what it's worth, Nouriel Roubini thinks that prosperity is a good deal farther down the road. 2009 will be a washout, says Nouriel. And even 2010 will be crappy.
